Week 11 college football picks against the spread, ranked in order of confidence | J-MAC’S CFB SUPER 6

This is an extremely chalky card – one of my biggest problems this season: I’ve had weeks where I beat the market to the closing number … and I lost. I’ve found the perfect spots … and they failed. I’ve believed in the underdogs … and they’ve let me down. It’s just been an all-around debacle. But as we get deeper to November and closer to bowl season, there are some great opportunities to turn my luck around. It starts – of course – with the best bet in college football: Ohio State first half.

I’m ready for that bounce back – let’s get to the games!

Ohio State -27 vs. Maryland (1st half)

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We’re kicking it off with a Super 6 game and my personal favorite: Maryland is a 44-point road underdog at Ohio State – that’s the biggest spread in a Big 10 game since 1978. Now, I’m not taking the bait here because obviously, this will be a blowout … but I can guarantee starters will be rested in the second half. So I’ve got to take the first half spread – Ohio State covers 27 in the first half against that Maryland team who is really in a funk.

Iowa +9.5 at Wisconsin

Folks, we’ve got ourselves another Super 6! Wisconsin is a 9.5-point home favorite against Iowa. At first glance this looks like a huge line – I am right? I mean Wisconsin has lost two in a row … but let’s not forget: Iowa is just not that good. Wisconsin – off of a bye week – I think this is a great spot to demolish a really overrated Iowa team. Look for Jonathan Taylor who is in for a monster game … I’m all in on Wisconsin favored by 9.5 at home.

Oklahoma -14 at Iowa State

Iowa State has struggled a bit this season … they lost their last game to Oklahoma State with Brock Purdy throwing three picks. I’m all over Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma here – coming off a bye and coming off a loss. The Sooners need to win convincingly to prove they’re worthy of the college football playoff. Give me Oklahoma winning and covering 14 points on the road.

NC State +32 at Clemson

The narrative out there is that Clemson has looked subpar this year … they are only fifth in the college football playoff ratings. Trevor Lawrence is not in the Heisman mix – but in this game, they are right side here folks. I’m big on Clemson favored by 32 at home. Hear me out: This is an NC State team that gave up 45 points to Boston College … and 44 points last week against Wake Forest. I think Clemson dominates this game – I like the tigers to roll favored by 32 points.

Minnesota +6.5 vs. Penn State

Here we go with another Super 6! We’ve got Penn State, a 6.5-point road favorite at Minnesota. You might be asking yourselves: Why is Minnesota – who is undefeated – a big home underdog? Well … they just haven’t played anybody. They’ve beaten up on a lot of bottom feeders. Penn State is the right side here – second best defense in the country. I think they bottle up Minnesota and win handily … give me Penn State favored by 6.5 points on the road.

LSU +6.5 at Alabama

We finish it off with another Super 6 … and to make that bet even sweeter: It’s the game of the year folks. LSU is a 6.5-point road underdog in Alabama. The Tide have won 31 straight home games, and they have dominated LSU as of late – winning the last eight meetings.

The big question: Will Tua Tagovailoa – the great Alabama quarterback – will he even play? We don’t know his status … Alabama is keeping it quiet. But for me it doesn’t matter. I just don’t trust this Alabama defense … they gave up over 400 yards to Ole Miss and South Carolina. Joe burrow and LSU will move the football with ease. Guys, I’m taking the underdog again – I’m betting on LSU getting 6.5 points and an outright win in Tuscaloosa.

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Christian Ward

Entrepreneur, data geek, author & dad... in reverse order. Chief Data Officer at SourceMedia in NYC, co-author of Data Leverage

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